A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
